The World Series is over and another exciting offseason awaits. It could prove to be an exciting time, but – in the spirit of Halloween – here are the top five things that could leave me like a cat on hot bricks this offseason.
5) Tony LaCava as Orioles GM
Former Baltimore Orioles GM Andy MacPhail resigned at the end of the 2011 season after the team concluded their 14th consecutive losing season. During the initial rounds of interviews, it was reported that former Arizona GM Jerry DiPoto and Toronto assistant general manager Tony LaCava were front-runners for the job. Late last week, the Angels announce DiPoto would fill their vacant GM seat, leaving LaCava as the likely hire in Baltimore. Today, Ken Rosenthal of FOXsports.com tweeted that LaCava was in Baltimore meeting with owner Peter Angelos, who didn’t take part in the first round of interviews.
LaCava began his MLB career as scout with the Angels in 1989. He’s worked with Atlanta, Montreal and Cleveland before taking a position in Toronto in 2002. Currently he is the vice president of baseball operations and assistant general manager. He oversees player development and Latin America operations for the Blue Jays. Perhaps a good measurement of his value is the Jays’ top ranked farm system.
Alex Anthopoulos told Sportsnet, “Just like losing a great player to a division rival, it hurts twice as much [losing LaCava to another AL East team]. Again, not that we’ve accomplished a whole lot, we’re not a playoff team, we’re not a World Series winner, but whatever good we have accomplished, if Tony wasn’t here we wouldn’t have done it, that I can guarantee you. Tony is the impetus and the catalyst for a lot of the things that we’re doing here.”
But it’s not just losing LaCava that scares me. My biggest fear: That LaCava would be successful in Baltimore. Another well-run club in the AL East is daunting prospect. Until June of this year, the Blue Jays had won 16 straight home games against the Orioles. They need them to be bad.
4) Yu Darvish Posting Fee
Anthopoulos has tried to make it very clear that he doesn’t intend to land any big free agents this winter, instead looking at trade options – which he has been ridiculously successful at in the past. However Yu Darvish might be the exception. The 25-year-old – born to an Iranian father and Japanese mother – may be the best pitcher in Japanese professional baseball.
Because he is not a free agent in Japan, he would have to be posted by his team, the Nippon-Ham Fighters. Interested MLB teams would place a bid on the posting fee and winner would pay the Fighters for the chance to sign Darvish.
Five years ago, the Red Sox won the right to negotiate with Daisuke Matsuzaka for about $51 million, and then signed him to a six-year $52 million contract. Total money spent was over $100 million. On mlbtraderumors.com, a source told Tim Dierkes that the posting fee would likely reach $50 million and the right-hander would then seek a five-year deal worth $75 million.
There are reports that both Boston and New York would only have limited interest due in part to the posting fee they paid for Matsuzaka and Kei Igawa respectively. Neither player lived up to their contract. However, country of origin may be the only similarity between those players and Yu Darvish. ESPN’s Buster Olney has reported that Texas and Toronto may be among the teams most likely to win the Darvish derby.
My biggest fear: A bumbling franchise like the Washington Nationals or Baltimore Orioles want to make a splash and drive up the posting fee by bidding $75 million.
3) A Contract for a Proven Closer
Yes, signing a successful free agent closer scares me. I’m nearly positive it won’t happen, but I’ll be sweating it out until Heath Bell, Jonathan Papelbon and Ryan Madson sign elsewhere.
We all know the bullpen struggled in 2011. And yes, there were blown saves, a few too many blown saves. But calling on the Jays to sign a ‘proven’ closer – at all costs – is a wildly flawed viewpoint.
Consider: A percentage of the team’s blown saves did not happen in the 9th inning; a percentage of the team’s blown saves did not even lead to a loss; and a percentage of the blown saves may have been due to bullpen mismanagement (particularly early in the year).
There are huge year-to-year fluctuations in most statistics for closers. There are those who are groomed in the minors for the closers role, flourish at the major league level, before losing effectiveness almost completely. Just ask Jonathan Broxton and Joakim Soria. Then there are those who, for years, fail as a starter or even middle reliever before turning into all-star calibre closers. Just ask David Aardsma and Ryan Franklin.
There is just too much uncertainty when it comes to signing relief pitchers to medium or long term deals because of the risk of breakdown or loss of effectiveness. While on the other side there is an abundance of quality pitchers who can effectively step in as a closer.
All closers blow saves. Maybe not all of them, you might say. Brad Lidge did save 41 games in 2008 without blowing a save. He must be the best of the finest of the greatest of the elite. But in 2009? Lidge ends the year with 11 blown saves and a 7.21 ERA. Too much risk.
It is also the last area of the team that should be addressed. It is truthfully the least important part. The Yankees, Tigers and Rangers went above and beyond in building their bullpens for 2011 – and all three teams won the World Series, right?
My biggest fear: A Groundhog Day type situation where everyday the Blue Jays sign B.J. Ryan to a 5-year, $47 million contract.
2) The Expiry of the MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement
The current deal expires on Dec. 11, and unlike the negotiations for the NFL and NBA, the talks have proceeded constructively throughout the year.
According to numerous sources, most of the major obstacles for a new labour agreement have already been tackled, and only signing bonuses for amateur draft picks is left to agree on. Commissioner Bud Selig wants a fixed system know as slotting – which ties the bonuses to when a prospect is drafted.
After eight work stoppages from 1972 to 1995 – including the strike in 1994 that cancelled the World Series for the first time in 90 years – the league has done well in avoiding disruptions.
My biggest fear: Simply, no baseball when there should be baseball.
1) Fear Itself
There really is nothing to fear this offseason.
The Blue Jays go into the 2012 season with a top-five minor league system, a GM considered to be among the best in baseball, one of the top players on the planet, and the richest owners in baseball. So happy Halloween.
