Don’t throw in the white towel yet, Canucks fans.
After Wednesday’s Game 4 comeback the team now has a one in five shot at winning its series against the L.A. Kings, according to a Simon Fraser University statistician.
Tim Swartz said going into the L.A. game the struggling team’s odds were looking terrible. Only three teams in the history of the NHL have come back from a 3-0 deficit, but with the Canucks’ 3-1 win, Swartz said their odds have improved significantly.
“We don’t need to consider that any more because games are statistically independent, and the series is now 3-1, and so things are much better in the history of the NHL,” the math professor explained. “There have been 253 series where teams have been behind 3-1. They’ve come back in 24 of those series, so that’s roughly nine per cent of the time.”
He calculated their chances are actually an even rosier 20 per cent based on some fancy math incorporating the team’s past feats of strength, his vast knowledge of sports book stats, and the home ice advantage the Canucks will enjoy for two of the next three games if they make it all the way to Game 7.
“Now that Daniel (Sedin) has had a game under his belt, I’m hopeful for Game 5, but of course they’ve got to do it three times in a row, so the chances are still low, but it’s not impossible,” Swartz said.
“If you were to talk to people a few days ago, everybody said it was impossible, but I mean, one in five is way better than impossible.”
Game 5 goes at Rogers Arena Sunday at a time to be determined.