With the 40th anniversary of the Juno Awards coming up Sunday from the Air Canada Centre in Toronto, it’s time for some handicapping potshots.

Artist of the Year: Arcade Fire, Drake, Justin Bieber, Neil Young, Sarah McLachlan.  
Should win: Artistically, critically and commercially, all things point to the Arcade Fire.
Will win: After the Grammy and Brit awards wins, it’ll be very hard to deny the Arcade Fire’s The Suburbs its trifecta. The bigger news will be if they don’t win in their native country.  And what will that say about us as a music-making nation?

Group of the Year:  Arcade Fire, Broken Social Scene, Down with Webster, Great Big Sea, Three Days Grace.
Should win: Arcade Fire for the same reasons they should win Artist of the Year.
Will win: Arcade Fire. But think about this: Juno voting took place before the band won their Grammy and Brit awards. How many members of CARAS ticked the box for Broken Social Scene? How many of them would like a mulligan?

Single of the Year: “Oh, Canada”/Classified, “Find Your Love”/Drake, “Perfect”/Hedley, “Hallelujah (Vancouver 2010)”/kd lang, “Wavin’ Flag”/Young Artists for Haiti.
Should win: I honestly don’t care. This is a very weak category.
Will win: A toss-up between kd lang (just because we remember her singing it at the Olympics), Drake (because he’s also hosting the show) and “Wavin’ Flag” (just because it’s a feel-good song).

Album of the Year: The Suburbs/Arcade Fire, Thank Me Later/Drake, A Place Called Love/Johnny Ried, My World 2.0/Justin Bieber.
Should win: Arcade Fire. Just give it to them already.
Will win: Arcade Fire—I hope. Drake’s record is good, but not better than The Suburbs. Same goes for Johnny Reid, who breathed a lot of life back into country with this album. And Bieber?  Please.

Juno Fan Choice: Drake, Hedley, Johnny Reid, Michael Bublé, Justin Bieber
Should win: Because this is a fan’s choice award, it doesn’t matter who should win. It all comes down to the artist who has the most motivated and mobilized fans.  
Will win: Leave it to Bieber.  Can you imagine any universe where the outcome might be anything else?

I’d expect solid TV ratings for the show, too, thanks to the new phenomenon of everyone firing up Twitter during awards programs. That’s what I’ll be doing. If you want to follow me, look for @alancross.