It’s Jean Chretien’s day today.
The old warrior’s portrait, which is to be hung in the halls of Parliament, will be unveiled in a ceremony hosted by Prime Minister Stephen Harper tonight.
A safe bet is there will be a lot of Liberals in attendance wishing Chretien was still around.
“Ah, the good old days.” That will be the phrase on everyone’s lips as his three straight majority election victories are recalled.
His legacy is getting better with time, particularly on account of what has happened since he stepped down in 2003. The once-proud party has staggered ever since. Paul Martin won a minority and then was defeated. Stéphane Dion took over and the party declined further. Michael Ignatieff replaced him and the party’s latest poll standing is at 25 per cent.
Three factors have been at the root of the Liberal decline. One was 9/11, which changed the personality of the times, hoisting the security agenda forever to the forefront. A second was the sponsorship controversy that happened under the Chretien watch and which cost the party a dozen points in the polls. The Liberals have yet to recover from that scandal. The third factor has been the party’s inability to find a leader who can catch on.
Chretien’s words today will be parsed for advice, but he has no magic formula for getting the Grits on track. His former adviser, Peter Donolo, is now chief of staff to Ignatieff. There is no doubt the former prime minister has had an opportunity to offer his counsel.
One piece of encouragement Chretien will be able to provide is a reference to his own experience. He served as opposition leader for three years and had a terrible time almost every step of the way…and won.
Another sign of hope is that the party’s major opponent isn’t exactly setting the world on fire. Since coming to power in 2006, the Conservatives have averaged only about 35 per cent support in the polls. Try finding any other government in Canadian history with rankings that low for so long a period.
What helped Chretien enormously was the role of fortune. He knows well that you must have breaks to win in this game. He got his with the complete collapse of the Tory party in 1993.
The little guy from Shawinigan, however, had qualities succeeding Liberal leaders have lacked. He was a strong character with homespun personal appeal. He embodied good old-fashioned Canadian grit.
Stephen Harper is seen as the guy with grit now.
Lawrence Martin is a journalist and author of 10 books who writes about national affairs from Ottawa.